• Gay
marriage will hit David Cameron hard in the local elections
• Pro
traditional marriage UKIP surge to 22 per cent
• Lib Dems
also losing votes over policy
David Cameron
faces losing hundreds of county council seats this Thursday, because of his
plans to redefine marriage, according to a major new poll of voters entitled to
vote in this week’s local elections.
The survey
carried out by ComRes ahead of the local elections reveals that one in
four of those who helped put David Cameron into Downing Street say the policy
is turning them off from voting Conservative.
Asked,
"Does the Coalition Government's plans to legalise same sex marriage make
you more or less likely to vote for each of these parties in next week's local
elections?" one quarter, (26 per cent) of Conservative 2010 voters say
less likely with fewer than one in 10 (nine per cent) saying more likely.
The
policy is costing the Conservatives three votes for every one gained.
Worryingly
for Mr Cameron the poll, carried out between 24th and 28th April,
found evidence that the policy was driving voters into the arms of the UK
Independence Party, who have seen their poll rating surge in recent months.
Asked about
voting intentions for Thursday, more than one in five of voters (22 per cent),
said they were planning to vote for Nigel Farage's Party which opposes gay
marriage. Amongst Conservative 2010 voters this rises to one in four (25 per
cent) who say they will be voting UKIP on Thursday.
Colin
Hart Campaign Director for the Coalition for Marriage described the poll
as a “real blow for the PM”.
“The Prime
Minister has consistently backed the proposed changes to redefine marriage as
part of the so called decontamination strategy, but it has not worked. Every
section of the electorate are highly sceptical about his motives, believing he
is pushing this policy in a cynical attempt to make his party look trendy and
progressive. This is the ultimate failure of Blairite triangulation policy.
“As Lady
Thatcher famously said, 'If you just set out to be liked, you would be prepared
to compromise on anything at any time and you would achieve nothing'."
The poll
makes grim reading for Mr Cameron's Coalition partners, the Lib Dems who see
their electoral support plummet. In 2009 a quarter, (24.9 per cent) of those
voting in the same local elections voted Lib Dem. Four years later this figure
is set to halve to just over one in ten (12 per cent).
Twice as many
Lib Dem 2010 voters say that gay marriage is making them less likely to vote
for their party compared with more likely, (18 per cent and 9 per cent respectively).
And one in five Lib Dem 2010 voters say they intend to vote Labour on Thursday.
The poll also
found some evidence that this weekend’s attacks on UKIP have boosted support
for Mr Farage to the tune of nearly five per cent.
Mr Hart
continued: "No 10 will no doubt take comfort that his own performance is
slightly less disastrous than Ed Miliband's, who polls under a quarter, (24 per
cent), but this compares with less than one in nine people (12.7 per cent) who
voted in the same elections in 2009. So these figures represent a significant
improvement on where Labour was four years ago.”
The poll is
the third blow to Mr Cameron’s gay marriage plan this week. Yesterday a
national newspaper published a letter from the leaders of the UK biggest
so-called black churches, which was highly critical of the plans.
Black church
leader Rev Yemi Adedeji (whose group includes churches representing one
million people) accused
the PM of turning his back on traditional values to satisfy the
demands of a “white, liberal elite” while ignoring the growing ethnic minority
communities who might otherwise be part of their core vote.
The letter
said that the Government had “no respect for democracy” and warned the
Conservatives that the redefinition of marriage could cost them votes by
rejecting “difference” and “a plural society”.
And yesterday
the Northern Ireland Assembly firmly rejected a Sinn Fein backed proposal to
rewrite the current definition of marriage by more 11 votes, an increased
majority from when the assembly last voted on the issue.
Mr Hart
concluded: “This latest poll is a real blow for the PM. It shows that ripping
up the current definition of marriage is a real turn off. It is costing both
the Conservative and Lib Dems massive amounts of votes and is significantly
driving up support for UKIP.
“The legal
safeguards have already started to unravel making much more likely cases like
Adrian Smith, the Housing Manager demoted for saying on his personal facebook
page that gay marriage in churches was an “equality too far”, or Rev Ross who
was sacked because his belief in traditional marriage was “not compatible” with
Strathclyde’s police equality policy.
“Now we find
out that the leaders of Britain’s largest ethnic minority churches have been
completely ignored, including their request for a meeting with the Secretary of
State being rejected. Given that Black churches represent well over a million
people it is astonishing that this important group would be so marginalised and
ignored.”
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